It seems like college basketball experts say the same thing every spring. You know, how there are no dominant teams this season in college basketball, and this NCAA Tournament is going to be wide open.
This year, however, they definitely got it right. The 2018 edition of March Madness may already go down in history as the craziest NCAA Tournament ever, and we’re only through one weekend of action.
UMBC didn’t just become the first #16 seed to beat a #1. The Retrievers blew out the top-ranked team in the entire tournament by 20-plus points, a game that wasn’t even in doubt for the final 12 minutes or so. Another #1 seed, Xavier, is also already out, and #2 Cincinnati somehow blew a 22-point lead with 7 minutes left in a loss to the unheralded Nevada Wolfpack.
Also gone is defending champion and 2-time finalist North Carolina, along with a pair of #3 seeds (Michigan State and Tennessee) and a couple of #4s (Arizona and Wichita State). All in all, 4 of the top 5 teams on the final AP Top 25 have already seen their seasons come to an end, as have 7 of the top 13.
Considering how ridiculous March Madness has been so far, it’s only logical to expect we’ll see even more upsets when the Sweet 16 gets underway Thursday and Friday.
Here are 4 Sweet 16 upsets I’ve circled, not just based on the betting value that is available on the underdogs but also because I can totally see them happening.
Don’t think Syracuse should even be in the NCAA Tournament? Neither do I. But we all need to get over it, because the Orange has shown that it isn’t satisfied to just get a participation ribbon.
The vaunted Cuse zone defense is peaking at the perfect time, holding each of its first 3 opponents in the tournament to 56 points or less. Playing defense like that may not have seemed like a big deal in the play-in game against Arizona State or even against an unproven TCU squad in Round 1, but bewildering the talented Michigan State Spartans to the tune of 28.6% from the field and forcing Sparty into 37 3-point attempts (17 more than they shot all season) is impressive no matter which way you slice it.
If veteran Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo had no answer for Jim Boeheim’s zone on Sunday, what should make us confident that Duke bench boss Mike Krzyzewski has all the answers? Duke easily handled the Orange 60-44 during the regular season in Durham, but Syracuse had won the previous 2 meetings, each time as an underdog.
With Duke favored by 11.5 points, the outright upset feels like we’re asking for a lot here and taking the points seems like a much safer play. But before you dismiss the idea of taking the Orange +550 on the moneyline, consider that Duke is 1-6 overall this season in games decided by 5 points or less while Syracuse is 7-4 in that situation. If this game is tight down the stretch (as I expect it to be), a loose and confident Orange squad should have an advantage over a Duke side that has everything to lose.
When you get a 7-11 matchup in the Sweet Sixteen, it kind of feels like there are 2 underdogs in the game and no favorite. But Nevada is the chalk in this matchup, laying 2.5 points at the time of writing. After embracing the underdog mentality in the opening round against #10 Texas (the Wolfpack was catching 1 point despite being the higher seed) and then overcoming a 22-point deficit with 7 minutes left to beat Cincinnati in the Round of 32, Nevada could be a bit vulnerable and even feel pressure now that it’s actually expected to win and advance to the Elite Eight.
With all due respect to Sister Jean Dolores Schmidt, there’s more to the Ramblers’ run to the Sweet 16 than just divine intervention. Loyola-Chicago is 21-9-1 against the point spread this season, showing that it continues to be underestimated by the Vegas oddsmakers. This is a team that won outright as 16-point underdogs earlier this season at Florida and also posted road upsets at Northern Iowa and Illinois State. The Ramblers also have a lot more big-game experience than you may think, featuring 7 players with high school state championships on their resumes.
High school is obviously not the NCAA, but I think that experience has taught the Ramblers how to win important games: taking care of the ball, defending without fouling and hitting clutch shots. Those were all keys to Loyola-Chicago’s upsets of Miami and Tennessee, and they could easily carry the Ramblers past Nevada in what should be another tight affair in the Sweet 16.
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