It wasn’t too long ago that I was previewing the 2018 March Madness tournament, detailing how to build out a logical bracket.
That went…horribly.
As it turns out, the experts knew very little. Just two #1 seeds remain as the Sweet 16 circles around and Virginia will forever be known as the first 1-seed ever to lose in the first round to a 16-seed team.
That was shocking, but for my personal bracket, it was far from the only thing that went wrong. I do still have my champion (Villanova) alive and half of my Final Four is intact, but things didn’t go great to get the tourney started.
While I missed a lot of crazy calls, nearly half of my picks (seven) did find their way to the Sweet 16. Considering the first round alone saw upsets by eight teams, I’ll take the wins where I can get them.
Fortunately the tournament is far from over. March Madness is down to just four teams in four different regions and the end is coming readily along. There is still some work to be done over the next four days. however.
In an effort to assist college basketball bettors and/or March Madness bracket challenges that allow editing, here’s my updated look at how the remainder of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament will shake out:
This region looks to be all Kentucky. It was once probably between Virginia and Cincinnati, but the top two seeds (and the two best defenses in the country) are long gone.
The Wildcats lead the way (-110 at BetOnline) as the favorites to emerge from this region and crack the 2018 Final Four, while their overall title odds (+800 at BetOnline) aren’t half bad either.
To get things started, Kentucky (-260) is the obvious favorite to edge out a Kansas State (+220) team that probably had no business even making it out of the first round.
Kentucky has the edge in coaching and overall talent and there’s little reason to believe they won’t at least make it to the Elite 8. Kansas State can defend, but they’ll need an amazing effort just to stay in this one.
On the other side of the South region is a battle between the high-flying Wolfpack of Nevada, which offers up the nation’s 14th best scoring offense. They’ll be locking horns with Loyola-Chicago, which has pulled out clutch moves in two straight wins.
The Ramblers (EVEN) have an elite defense and their game against Nevada (-120) is being graded out as a toss-up by Bovada and other college basketball betting sites, but I can’t ignore the Wolfpack’s offensive bite.
Ultimately, this region is going to come down to a crazy showdown in the Elite 8 between Nevada and Kentucky.
The Wildcats may be threatened there, but they look like the runaway favorites in this region and I think it’d be a mild surprise if they actually didn’t take each of the next two games in blowout fashion.
The East region continues to feel like a cakewalk for Villanova. The Wildcats are one of two #1 seeds remaining and have long been many experts’ top pick to win it all this year.
Villanova beat North Carolina to win the college basketball national title just two years ago and with the nation’s most potent offense (#1 in scoring), they seem to be a valid threat to do so again.
It will not be crazy to see that happen, as Villanova (-120) is the clear favorite to escape this region. That being said, the Wildcats are not insanely huge favorites (-225) in their Sweet 16 showdown with West Virginia (+185).
The Mountaineers are actually a worthy opponent, having dispatched a solid Murray State squad in round one and easily topping a potent Marshall team in round two.
While West Virginia has looked good so far and made it through the tough Big-12, I still don’t think they’re good enough to down what many would agree is the best college basketball team in the country.
Ultimately, Villanova should find a way to move on and will be greeted in the Elite 8 by either Purdue (-125) or Texas Tech (+105).
This could be a more fascinating matchup, as the Boilermakers were once seen as a title contender coming out of the two spot, but are down star big man, Isaac Haas.
Purdue’s defense wasn’t quite up to par in a three-point win over Butler in round two, leaving many to believe they could be vulnerable as the games get tougher.
I’m of that belief, and it especially gets tricky against a tried and true Red Raiders team that has some serious defensive bite. The elite defenses in this tournament have been getting killed off early, but Texas Tech remains and may offer solid value in this Sweet 16 battle.
Villanova will find a way past Texas Tech to get to the Final Four, but I do like the Red Raiders to deliver a shining moment in a win over Purdue.
If you’re looking for a wide open region that could return elite value and spew out a random Final Four participant, the West is it.
Gonzaga (+150) leads the way here at BetOnline, but this is a pretty loaded group of viable options. More importantly, the Zags are not the dominant team they were a year ago and while they’re the first team sportsbooks are latching onto, they’re no lock to make it to the Final Four.
That logic is intensified when the Zags enter a showdown with the Florida State Seminoles. Gonzaga is still a pretty big favorite at -255, but they have not had it easy through two games in this tourney and they’ll be battling an ACC survivor that has taken down Missouri and the top-seeded Xavier.
I still think Gonzaga’s coaching, experience and balance are enough to edge out the win here, but I think their next showdown in the Elite 8 could provide a tall order.
Before you get there, you have to decide who wins in a clash between Texas A&M and Michigan.
The Wolverines outlasted Montana in round one and narrowly edged Houston in round two, yet they go into Thursday as -145 favorites when they take on the Aggies (+125).
Texas A&M has been the far more impressive team to this point, as they just completely wrecked the defending champion Tar Heels and also got past a very underrated Providence team in round one.
I think Michigan is a team to fear due to their defense and ability on the outside offensively, so even though Texas A&M offers very interesting upside in this region, I’ll hang my hat on the fundamentals here.
That gives bettors an interesting Elite 8 showdown between Michigan and Gonzaga in what will probably be seen as a toss-up game. I’d agree with that, but in the end the defense has to win out in some fashion.
Michigan is quickly heating up as a team of destiny in a sense and I like their ability to get hot from outside and tighten things up defensively. If they can get past the Aggies, I think they’re a fun bet to make it to the Final Four.
The Midwest is almost certainly down to Duke (-140) and Kansas (+250). The Blue Devils do have to deal with Syracuse’s pesky zone defense in the Sweet 16, but it’s tough to bet against a very talented team led by Coach K.
While I like Duke (massive -800 favorites at Bovada) to get the win here, there is no denying the Orange (+500) are a fun story and offer ridiculous upside. Their defense could give Duke a hard fight and keep bettors on the edge of their seat, but I don’t think it gets them a win.
The Blue Devils are just too good and are cruising through the tournament at this point. I think they crack the zone early with the nationa’s 40th best outside shooting onslaught and coast to an easy victory.
If they can make that happen, the Blue Devils can expect to battle either the Jayhawks or the Clemson Tigers.
Clemson isn’t getting much respect so far, but it’s worth pointing out that the Tigers came into the tourney as a respectable 5-seed and absolutely destroyed a good Auburn program in round two.
While Clemson shouldn’t be taken lightly, Kansas is a strong #1 seed and seen by many as a staunch title threat. I agree with that notion, as Bill Self is one of the brilliant minds in the game today and few teams are as stacked with talent as Kansas.
On top of that, the Jayhawks are just impossible to slow down. Kansas sports the 9th best three-point shooting group in the country and should be too much for Clemson to handle.
The college basketball gods won’t allow for this region to be decided by anything less than a Duke vs. Kansas clash. It’s impossible to ignore the fact that Kansas offers the most alluring value out of this region (+250), but there is something about Duke this year.
I did not originally pick the Blue Devils to win it all, but I do think they’re a more explosive team than the Jayhawks. This game will deliver in probably every way possible, but as I predicted before the tourney, I like Duke’s blistering offense to get them to the Final Four.
There is still a lot to be hashed out over the next four days, but when the dust settles, I firmly expect these four matchups in the Final Four:
Villanova (1) vs. Duke (2) Kentucky (5) vs. Michigan (3)It is really unfortunate that Villanova and Duke will be forced to wage war in the Final Four instead of the title game, as these teams match up extremely well. I doubt there will be a lot of defense here, but both teams can really put up points and can get hot from outside.
Duke may have the narrative backing them in this spot, but Villanova has the slightly better offense and has proven recently that they’re championship material. If anyone is going to beat the Wildcats in the tournament, this is where it would happen.
While Duke is a worthy competitor, I like Villanova’s offense more and think they make it back to the title game for the second time in the past three years.
On the other side is an odd battle between Kentucky and Michigan. On paper, the Wildcats have better coaching, way more talent and are the easy call.
The only thing keeping me from a knee-jerk Kentucky pick is the fact that the Wolverines have some serious bite defensively. Kentucky is also a notoriously slow team out of the gates under John Calipari and they don’t always deliver in the tournament.
Perhaps they won’t get the job done in the end, but so far Kentucky has one of the easier routes to the title game and once they’re in the Final Four I find it very hard to believe that it will be Michigan that derails them.
I do think Duke provides cause for pause when sending Villanova through my bracket, but the Wildcats are the better team and ultimately should get back to the national title game.
I like them to win again, too. Their offense is the best in the country and even in defeat, Villanova either pieced together a gem of an offensive game or at least was in it until the end.
Kentucky can’t really say that. They endured a rough four-game skid in the middle of the year and while they were in numerous tight games, they routinely failed in the clutch.
That’s always the mark of a John Calipari team, though. They’re talented but young and they need to earn their stripes along the way.
Unfortunately, I believe this will be another lost season for a Kentucky team that continues to live and die based on just how quickly each successive batch of one-year commits can band together and learn how to win.
In the face of the best team in the nation on the greatest stage in college basketball, I don’t trust Kentucky to finish the job.
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