The moment of truth is almost here! Two of the most exciting fighters of this generation will finally meet in the octagon this Saturday. The man who has never been beaten so far, Khabib Nurmagomedov, will face Conor McGregor, the man who is not afraid to fight anyone under any terms.
It’s no wonder that the UFC president, Dana White, expects 2 million PPV buys, which will smash the current record. The whole MMA world will be watching, as well as plenty of casual fans of the sport. The hype is real for this one, and I hope the fight itself does live up to the expectations.
In this final preview, I will share my thoughts on what could possibly happen between Conor and Khabib. Of course, the main target will be to find betting picks that provide solid value.
Here we go!
I simply can’t start a post dedicated to a McGregor fight without talking about the mental part of the contest. The Irishman is one of the best in the sport when it comes to getting in the head of his opponents.
I would argue that Conor has an advantage almost every time he enters the cage. Many people are annoyed by all of his antics, and I can see why. However, the Notorious achieves two big goals with them. The first one is to attract enough attention to the fight, which is one of the reasons he is a superstar.
The more important part is that all of his insults, arrogant KO predictions, and talks before the fight usually lead to confusion and anger in his opponents. This is true most of the time, and the best example is the bout against Jose Aldo.
The Brazilian has been dominating the UFC featherweight division for ages and fell into Conor’s trap. Aldo was angered and couldn’t keep his composure. His desire to smash McGregor lead to a foolish charge that was punished by the famous left hand of the Irishman.
Many other fighters were in a similar situation, but some showed a tougher mentality. Nate Diaz was among them, and the American was immune to Conor’s games. This is one of the reasons why he was one of his hardest opponents up to date.
Khabib looks like he is not intimidated by the Irishman, despite his insults and aggressive behavior in the build-up. What’s certain is that both men hate each other after all of the history from the past couple of years.
Usually, in MMA, the fighters simulate hatred to hype the bout and attract the attention of the public. This time around, it truly is personal. For a start, Khabib and his boys rounded Artem Lobov, who is part of Conor’s team.
The Irishman’s revenge came in the famous bus incident, which almost cost him his career.
Despite the rivalry, both strike me as cold-blooded and patient warriors. I expect them to use their anger and hatred and channel it. Usually, I would give Conor the edge from a mental point of view, but not in this case.
It’s even odds from this angle, as I expect to see both men fully focused. They will be patient and methodical.
Next in line in my analysis is dedicated to the striking skills of both fighters. I don’t think there’s a debate here, as McGregor is one of the best out there when it comes to striking. The Irishman has a devastating arsenal of kicks, hooks, uppercuts, and all kinds of weapons, really.
He is the master of finding the right angle and keeping the correct distance. Most of his wins came after knockouts thanks to that, and many believe this is his biggest chance to win against Khabib.
Especially since the Russian has shown some impatience in some of his previous fights, especially against Al Iaquinta and Michael Johnson. While many go too far in their assessment, the fact is that Khabib has been hit before and sometimes seems reckless when charging forward.
Most experts believe that the Irishman’s only chance to win the fight is to take advantage of Khabib’s recklessness, and I agree. Nurmagomedov will have to be careful, or the Notorious will put him to sleep.
Khabib’s chin looks strong, but this is not your regular striker. In fact, this is probably the best pound-for-pound striker in the UFC right now. The Dagestani will have to find a way to take the fight to the ground, or he will lose it.
Fortunately for Khabib, his main strength is to find a way to take people on the ground. This is hardly a surprise for someone who used to wrestle bears as a kid. Watch any fight of Nurmagomedov up to this point, and you will witness the same thing.
The Russian always finds a way to take his opponent down and pound him hard. He is the absolute master of that, as you can see in these highlights.
Khabib has a couple of favorite techniques, such as the single-leg takedown or the slams that are part of his combat sambo legacy. Even if he doesn’t succeed with them, the relentless aggression of the Dagestani fighter usually finds a way to take the opponent down.
The big question is what happens next. There are two ways to look at that. The first one is that once Khabib takes someone down, he gives him the kind of beating that could change careers. He simply keeps pounding the opponent.
This strategy is working so well that he has yet to lose a fight in his career. It’s even more shocking that the Russian has probably yet to lose A ROUND. It’s hard to argue against his approach when it’s so successful.
And still, often enough, Khabib doesn’t manage to finish his opponents, especially in the UFC. Six of his ten fights went the distance, and this could be a bit worrying. The main reason is the fact that the Dagestani fighter is not proficient in BJJ, so he is not very good at submitting people.
On the other hand, his opponents take so much punishment and waste so much energy trying to defend that they simply have nothing left in the tank. As a result, the bouts of Khabib look one-sided, especially the later rounds.
Conor knows that very well and will have to find a way to defend against the takedown attempts of his opponent. On top of that, he will have to get up quickly when he’s brought to the ground, as this is bound to happen one way or another.
Many people question the Irishman’s defense and ground game, but I would argue it’s actually better than most people believe.
Everyone thought that superior wrestlers like Chad Mendes and Eddie Alvarez were the perfect counters and would destroy Conor.
And yet, it was nothing like that.
McGregor was able to defend well against both and eventually put them down with his striking. The Irishman’s takedown defense is especially impressive. He uses his hands to predict what the opponent will do, as explained in the video below.
I think this technique helps him a lot, and many people underestimate Conor. He is not that bad on the ground, and he can protect himself well. Against an opponent like Khabib, he will have to be at his best, though.
The Russian is one of the best out there when it comes to bringing people down and never allowing them to get back up. If Conor allows that, it’s game over for him.
Another aspect of this fight where Khabib has an advantage is the gas tank. And once again, I think people are slightly underestimating Conor, but let’s start with the Russian.
He hasn’t shown any signs of fatigue in his previous fights. In fact, it looks like Nurmagomedov can fight all night long, but that’s a bit misleading. The Dagestani rarely takes any damage, which is one of the reasons behind his freshness.
On top of that, we still haven’t seen a fighter that has managed to actually stand up quickly after being taken down. If Conor manages to do that often, this could deplete Khabib’s gas tank.
And still, the Russian certainly looks better prepared than McGregor in this regard. We’ve seen Conor gas out a couple of times, most notably in the first fight against Nate Diaz. I think he wasn’t prepared to face someone who’s two weight classes above him.
The other problem was that his opponent somehow took a vicious beating, which took a lot of the Irishman’s gas tank. As McGregor himself said it, he didn’t use his energy wisely against Nate Diaz. I think the lesson was learned, and Conor has since worked harder to become more durable.
I would say that Khabib is a step ahead of his opponent and will have an advantage if the fight reaches round 3 and beyond. And yet, this depends on the events before that.
The majority of my analysis so far has been based on aspects that can be predicted if you look at the past fights of both men, at least to an extent. It’s time to explore another aspect of their characters that’s related to their overall attitude towards the world of mixed martial arts.
In a sense, Khabib is a more conservative fighter. He likes to stick with what he’s best at and trains hard to improve his strong sides. To be fair, his work with the American Kickboxing Academy has improved his striking, but he’s still far from the best in business.
Simply put, the Russian sticks to what he knows and believes in. His mind is rather closed to some of the other styles out there, like BJJ, for example. Khabib once famously wore a t-shirt saying, “If sambo was easy, it would be called jiu-jitsu,” which says it all, really.
It’s a bit of a shame because he would’ve been lethal on the ground.If he could add some more BJJ to his game, he would finish his opponents way more often. If you don’t believe me, listen to Jon Jones, who shares the same opinion.
This is why I don’t think we will see something unexpected from Khabib. He will try to keep his composure, protect his chin, and push hard in the pursuit of a takedown.
Conor is an entirely different animal. The Irishman is a follower of Bruce Lee’s philosophy and is always open to trying new techniques. He is a true martial artist in that sense, as he feels every discipline can improve his skills.
If someone can surprise the opponent in this fight, it’s the Irishman. This could be a game-changer at the end of the day.
The high fighting IQ of Conor and his ability to utilize every possible advantage might give him the edge over Khabib. One thing is certain, if someone is going to shock us, it would be him.
It’s time to share my final prediction for this fight, but let’s explore the main odds before that.
I’m a bit surprised by the odds, to be honest, as I feel the fight is closer than they suggest. Khabib might be the slight favorite, but Conor is no joke. His unbelievable striking could hurt the Russian, and I won’t be surprised if he puts him to sleep.
On top of that, some people talk like once the Irishman is down, it’s game over. This is not really the case, as McGregor does have the skills to survive a takedown or two without too much damage. Of course, if this keeps happening, Khabib will eventually win.
All things considered, I would have to back McGregor here, as the value lies in the odds for him to win this bout. The way I see it, the most likely scenario is for Khabib to take the battle on the ground and come out victorious at the end.
However, a knockout in favor of McGregor is a close second, while the Irishman is better when it comes to improvisation, and he might have a joker or two up his sleeve. As a result, I will have to back him at a price of +142, and this is my final pick.
If you intend to follow this advice or place another bet on this fight, I strongly recommend you check my post dedicated to the best gambling sites for Conor vs. Khabib. They will provide some extra value, and you won’t have to worry about anything.
If you are interested in other betting options, we have a piece that offers some prop bet opportunities offered by the top bookies.
I certainly hope there won’t be any problems until the fight and that both men will show up. I think that they want it badly, and Conor vs. Khabib could be a classic. Honestly, I can’t wait to see those two in the octagon.
What do you think about the fight? Do you agree with my prediction that it will be a close affair and that the value is on Conor, or do you feel that Khabib will be too strong for the Irishman? Feel free to let me know in the comments below.
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