In a matter of days, Bellator will begin its quest to crown a new heavyweight MMA champion. The vacant title, previously held by Vitaly Minakov, will be put on the line via an intense 8-fighter tournament, starting on January 20th.
The hyped event features some of the biggest heavyweight stars in MMA history, with the legendary Fedor Emelianenko hitting the canvas against Frank Mir in one of four first-round showdowns.
Rampage Jackson, Chael Sonnen, Matt Mitrione, Roy Nelson, Ryan Bader and Muhammad Lawal round out a star-studded tourney that will crown a new heavyweight champ:
Who wins the Heavyweight World Grand Prix that begins Saturday at #Bellator192?! @espn weighs in. https://t.co/XAT92EBmkF
— Bellator MMA (@BellatorMMA) January 16, 2018
This is a pretty huge deal for MMA fans, as it answers a lingering question; who is the biggest and baddest of them all?
Bellator continues to be in a constant competition with the UFC, but they will undoubtedly be drawing in viewers with some very interesting bouts.
Fedor and a few of the other big names in the Bellator Heavyweight Grand Prix are arguably well past their prime, but that doesn’t take away from a fun tournament and some tantalizing fights.
The question on everyone’s mind, of course, is who emerges out of round one and who will ultimately take the crown that was once on Minakov’s head.
Bovada prides itself on being one of the top MMA betting sites, both in wagering versatility and competitive odds. They were among the first sites to push out odds for this huge event and initially pegged Matt Mitrione as the favorite.
Mitrione has arguably the easiest path to advance out of round one to get things rolling, after all, as he’ll be taking on the 41-year old Roy Nelson.
Nelson retains plenty of power and toughness, but he’s been a regressing fighter for years. He limps into a troubling showdown with a shaky 4-7 run over his last 11 fights.
Many of those losses came against worthy competition, with studs like Mark Hunt, Alistair Overeem, Stipe Miocic, Daniel Cormier and Josh Barnett besting him.
Mitrione being the favorite is just the tip of the iceberg here, though. There are three other opening round bouts and Mitrione will need to take down more than just Nelson to win this thing.
Before I dive into any Grand Prix predictions, here’s a look at updated odds for this entertaining event:
Matt Mitrione (+225) Ryan Bader (+280) Frank Mir (+400) Fedor Emelianenko (+600) Roy Nelson (+600) Any Other Fighter (+600) Muhammad Lawal (+1100) Rampage Jackson (+1400) Chael Sonnen (+1600)As stated, Mitrione is the clear favorite, regardless of who you ask. Pretty much every major publication covering this big tourney has him pegged as the guy to outlast this bunch.
The one weird thing about this list is the “other fighter” bet, which naturally exists in case someone can’t fight at some point during this tournament. That actually could end up being an interesting bet, especially with how powerful some of these heavyweights are.
It wouldn’t be all that shocking to see someone sustain an injury even in a win or later get tripped up in training. It’s not a likely bet, but it’s not the worst flier ever at +600, either.
This list is also a little sad for die-hard MMA fans, too. Fedor is, to many, the greatest heavyweight fighter of all time, yet he ranks just 4th in odds to win this thing.
That might be putting it nicely, too. I would absolutely love to be wrong and see The Last Emperor rise from the ashes at 41 years of age, but he hasn’t been in elite form for years.
Fedor has actually locked in wins in 5 of his last 6 bouts, but they’ve largely come against weak competition. The fact that Emelianenko couldn’t easily dispatch some of those guys could be pretty telling as he prepares for one last stand in this tourney.
His most recent defeat came by the hands of Matt Mitrione, who handed him his 4th KO/TKO defeat of his illustrious career. Fedor is a huge name and a fun guy to root for, but even with interesting +600 odds, he’s too far past his prime to seriously vouch for.
Jackson specifically is 5-1 in his last 6 bouts, but his explosiveness and punching power haven’t been as good as he’s aged.
He’s still a vicious fighter and remains a threat with 18 career knockouts, but he’s allowed fights to go the distance in the twilight of his career. That could be bad news in a tournament like this, while he’s already lost to two guys in this Grand Prix.
Sonnen is the other elite value, but the big problem here is he and Rampage actually go head-to-head right away in the first round. That means one of these guys is headed for an extremely quick exit and it might not even do their talent justice.
Early indications are Jackson has the leg up, but Sonnen has had an impressive career and both fighters excel with movement and wrestling. If Sonnen can somehow get by Jackson, he’d quickly become an extremely interesting (and potentially highly profitable) Grand Prix sleeper.
This is very likely a two-man race and the oddsmakers probably have it right on the money by favoring Mitrione and Bader.
Mitrione is well put together, has KO power and hasn’t proven to be easy to take out. He did lose to Roy Nelson earlier in his career and is 39 years old, however.
For me, the momentum is with Bader. He’s the youngest guy in this tournament and is on fire. He’s won 4 straight matches and has just one loss in his last 10. That defeat came against the great Anthony Johnson, too, so it’s not like he got slapped around by some spare brawler.
If you want some realistic value, he’s a fun pivot off of the popular Mitrione. I get why Mitrione is the pick, but there’s really nothing exciting about him.
For me, I’d probably have fun with this if I’m laying down some cash. That probably includes a wager behind the great Fedor (as well as some crossing of my fingers) and maybe a flier bet on Rampage Jackson. A flier bet on an alternate fighter outside of the field, as mentioned, also might not be a complete waste of time.
The harsh reality is this is a loaded field and any of these guys could advance with one punch. They’re all big, tough guys who have been taken down and have also taken out countless opponents.
Still, the smart money rests with the two guys Bovada and other sports betting sites are favoring. I’ll take the extra value and roll with Bader, who I think has a little more pep in his step than the rest of this field.
Pick: Ryan Bader (+280)
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