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Looking at the Early Betting Lines for Week 4 of the 2018 NFL Season
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Looking at the Early Betting Lines for Week 4 of the 2018 NFL Season
The NFL is a crazy place to try to consistently win money when it comes to sports betting. Week three in particular was absolutely nuts.
If you were looking for one blinding example, look no further than the Buffalo Bills marching into Minnesota and laying waste to the Minnesota Vikings.
That 100% takes the cake for week three NFL bets that went completely backwards.
As bad as that was, it wasn’t the only finish to drop the collective jaws of NFL fans around the world.
Green Bay didn’t look good in DC, the Jaguars couldn’t top the Titans at home, the Houston Texans slid to 0-3 against the hapless Giants, and the Saints and Falcons combined for an unsightly 80 points.
Okay, that last one everyone should have seen coming.
I took an early look at the week three betting lines last Sunday, and before Monday Night Football even arrived, had my post out to help bettors make their picks for the week.
Going into week three, I held a respectable 18-12-2 record, going 9-6-1 in each week to start the 2018 NFL betting season. Week three delivered some hiccups, to be sure, but considering some of the insanity that went down, I’ll take a 6-9 record (again, not counting the MNF game yet).
That isn’t to say I’m happy finishing below .500. However, I had some solid moments – specifically calling Cleveland’s first win in almost two full years.
Obviously, last week wasn’t my finest hour, but hopefully, week four will be a little more hospitable to your betting endeavors. Let’s dive into the early week four NFL betting lines over at SportsBetting.ag and see how you may want to wager.
All odds that are referenced in this article were taken from SportsBetting.ag on 9/23/2018. These odds may have changed since the time of this writing.
Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) @ Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) Total: 49
Boy, did the Vikings get embarrassed in week three. Not only did they lose to the lowly Bills, but they did so at home and got absolutely housed.
I can’t believe I backed Minnesota to cover an insane -17 point spread. Now they have to go into LA and take on a Rams squad that has put up 30+ points in three straight contests to open the year.
Maybe they do it again, but I tend to think the Vikings overlooked the Bills, thinking they could coast by them and instead looked ahead to this game.
The Rams are the better team on paper and should win, but both teams will be on a short week. Don’t be shocked if we get a good game and Minny beats this +6.5 point spread.
Dalvin Cook should be back for this one, and Minnesota is better defensively than what they showed on Sunday.
PICKMinnesota Vikings (6.5)-117
Miami Dolphins (+7.5) @ New England Patriots (-7.5) Total: N/A
Talk about two teams that you thought would be different going into week four. Miami has somehow stayed perfect, while the Pats have looked nothing like a title contender as they’ve limped through a 1-2 start.
It’s been bad, but Josh Gordon makes his debut this week, and New England returns home after a forgettable two-game road trip.
Tom Brady is more comfortable in this setting, and he gets a new toy to test out down the field. Miami, meanwhile, could still be a fraud with hollow wins over the Titans, Raiders, and Jets.
I’ll roll with an angry Pats team to win easily on their home field.
PICKNew England Patriots (-7.5)-120
Houston Texans (+2) @ Indianapolis Colts (-2) Total: 47.5
The Texans are in a really bad spot, as they’re off to an ugly 0-3 start and can’t seem to stop anyone defensively. Now they have to head into Indy to face a very competitive Colts team that is 1-2 but has been in every game thus far.
It’s really hard to send the Texans to a hopeless 0-4 start, but they clearly aren’t as good as everyone thought they’d be. Cue the Bill O’Brien firing talk.
PICKIndianapolis Colts ATS (-2)-110
Cincinnati Bengals (+5) @ Atlanta Falcons (-5) Total: N/A
The Bengals gave a valiant effort but dropped to 2-1 with a tough road loss in Carolina, while the same can be said with the Falcons losing a crazy OT shootout at home against the Saints.
These are two solid teams, but the Falcons will be more desperate and on their home field. They’re also more talented, so I have no qualms about backing them in week four.
Unfortunately, this is a very tricky spread, so I’ll just take ATL as a straight-up winner.
PICKAtlanta Falcons to Win (N/A)
Buffalo Bills (+10.5) @ Green Bay Packers (-10.5) Total: 44.4
The Bills defied all logic with a huge road upset win over the Vikings last week, so it’s impossible to ignore them here. Green Bay, on the other hand, could very easily be 0-3 right now.
The Packers are tough to beat at Lambeau Field in theory, but the reality thus far is that they’re simply not very good. They’re certainly not dominant, which is what they’d have to be to take them at -10.5.
Back the Bills to keep this one interesting.
PICKBuffalo Bills (+10.5)-115
Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) Total: N/A
The Lions shocked everyone with a big 26-10 win over the Pats on Sunday Night Football, and in week four, they’ll try to keep the good times rolling in Big D.
Dallas tends to be the best version of themselves at their home stadium, while the ‘Boys need to step it up to avoid a 1-3 hole.
The spread doesn’t really excite me, so I’ll just back the Cowboys on their home turf. After struggling last week on the road, I’m expecting a dominant effort out of Ezekiel Elliott as Dallas controls this one.
PICKDallas Cowboys to Win(N/A)
New York Jets (+8.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5) Total: 38
The Jets shocked everyone with a huge 48-17 win over the Lions in week one. Over the past two weeks, however, they’ve looked a lot like the team we all thought they’d be.
Sam Darnold will be good at some point, but trusting him on the road against the Jaguars isn’t something I want to do. This spread is probably asking for trouble, but after getting ousted by Tennessee at home last week, Jacksonville should get amped up to defend their turf in week four.
A healthy return for Leonard Fournette would make the Jags the obvious choice here, so betting on Jacksonville early in the week may be the best way to maximize this NFL betting opportunity.
PICKJacksonville Jaguars ATS (-8.5)-112
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) @ Chicago Bears (-2.5) Total: N/A
I don’t know how the Bucs did on MNF in week three, but I do know that the Bears are legit defensively and will be at home. They also have a capable offense that won’t exactly be facing an elite defense.
No matter what Ryan Fitzpatrick does to the Steelers, I’m digging Chicago to nab this one and sit atop the NFC North at 3-1.
PICKChicago Bears (-2.5)-105
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Tennessee Titans (+3) Total: N/A
Carson Wentz’s return fueled a clutch home win for the Eagles in week three, and now he’ll lead Philly into Tennessee. There, the Eagles will clash with Mike Vrabel and a Titans team that somehow keeps winning with Blaine Gabbert running the show.
Tennessee deserves props for their unlikely 2-1 start, but I can’t buy them in this matchup – or in general. Philly has been very up and down to start the year, but this feels like a game they should take easily.
PICKPhiladelphia Eagles (-3)-120
Seattle Seahawks (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (+3) Total: 37.5
Arizona has been horrible en route to an 0-3 start, as they’ve given the suddenly inept Sam Bradford too long of a leash and have misused stud rusher David Johnson.
Maybe that all changes with rookie quarterback Josh Rosen (probably) taking over under center in week four, but even at home, he’s got a tall order in dispatching a slightly underrated Seahawks team.
I still trust Russell Wilson way more than Arizona at the moment. The spread might come back to haunt me, so I’ll just take the Seahawks as the victor.
PICKSeattle Seahawks to Win(N/A)
Cleveland Browns (+2.5) @ Oakland Raiders (-2.5) Total: 45
The Baker Mayfield era is officially here, and the former Sooner will get his first start in Oakland against the 0-3 Raiders. He’s already helped the Browns to their first win in almost two calendar years, so everything he does now is pretty much gravy.
Joking aside, Mayfield has a stiffer test than you’d think, seeing as the winless Raiders have actually been pretty competitive. Jon Gruden’s return to the NFL has been spoiled each week, but eventually, he’s going to get a win.
At home in a showdown with the Browns is probably as good a chance as Chucky will get.
PICKOakland Raiders to Win(N/A)
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) @ New York Giants (+3.5) Total: 50
Drew Brees has been enfuego to start the year, and now he’ll lead his Saints into New York to battle the G-Men. The Giants did just score a big win over the Texans to keep their season alive, but overall, they have not looked very good in 2018.
The Saints historically have difficulty on the road, but the Giants are overmatched here. This is a tricky spread, however, so I’ll just roll with Brees and company to find a way to get the win.
PICKNew Orleans Saints to Win(N/A)
Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) Total: N/A
Much like the Buccaneers, I don’t yet know where the Steelers are at mentally, as I’m pushing this post through before the MNF game is over. Pittsburgh is back home at Heinz Field against a familiar foe in week four, however, so I have to think they’ll be up for this one.
Pittsburgh remains stacked offensively, while the Ravens have proven to be very erratic on both ends of the field. Joe Flacco has been better than expected this year, but it’s oddly enough Baltimore’s defense I find hard to trust.
Spreads go out the window in AFC North clashes (usually), so I’ll just take the Steelers as a straight-up winner in a game they probably need to have.
PICKPittsburgh Steelers to Win(N/A)
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Chargers
Early signs indicate that starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will miss the remainder of the 2018 NFL season with a torn ACL. Even if he doesn’t, he’s almost certainly out for week four, and the Niners are going to be big underdogs.
The Chargers have gotten off to another one of their vintage slow starts, but they remain extremely talented. At home in a must-win situation against an inferior opponent, take the Bolts as the straight-up winner the second the lines are released.
PICKLos Angeles Chargers to Win(N/A)
Kansas City Chiefs (-4) @ Denver Broncos (+4) Total: 55
The last game on the week four NFL betting docket could be a good one, as the undefeated Chiefs travel to Colorado to battle the hated Broncos.
Denver (2-1) slipped up in a tough one against the Ravens last week, but fundamentally, theyhaveall of the necessary pieces to give KC problems.
It’s been a breeze thus far for quarterback Patrick Mahomes, but at some point, he’s going to struggle.
Denver is easily Kansas City’s toughest defensive draw to this point in 2018, and they have the offensive balance to potentially control this game.
I wish the spread was a bit fatter, but I’ll take the Broncos to keep this one close.
PICKDenver Broncos (+4)-115
Summary
Overall, week four is bound to be very interesting in the NFL. Week three was all over the place, and as we move forward, I still think several teams are going to be exposed.
In addition, some teams will be getting pretty desperate to get that first win or avoid a huge hole, so you need to consider shifting your betting biases to match a constantly evolving picture.
I do think the top teams are slowly showing themselves, but it’s too early to just ride teams every single week, while factoring in dicey spreads is always key.
Hopefully, this early look at week four NFL lines helps you figure out your bets – especially if you roll with my week four NFL picks!
The post Looking at the Early Betting Lines for Week 4 of the 2018 NFL Season appeared first on GamblingSites.com.
Golden Knights become first NHL team to partner with a sportsbook
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Golden Knights become first NHL team to partner with a sportsbook
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Sarah Brightman in concert at Tropicana Atlantic City
Casino City Times
Sarah Brightman in concert at Tropicana Atlantic City
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NFL Monday Night Football Betting Preview – Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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NFL Monday Night Football Betting Preview – Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Are the Buccaneers really as good as they’ve looked? What about the Steelers? Are they as bad and undisciplined as the product they have displayed thus far?
Because something just isn’t quite adding up.
You’ve got a 2-0 team playing at home, who opened the year by whooping the Saints on the road. Then Tampa knocked off the defending Super Bowl champs fairly convincingly- in a game where Ryan Fitzpatrick looked like a zoned-in Tom Brady.
On the other hand, you’ve got the Steelers, who got punked in their own building in Week 2, allowing Patrick Mahomes to come in and play as if he was being defended by a high school team’s practice squad.
Le’Veon Bell’s still MIA, and it looks like Mike Tomlin is losing control of this locker room more and more as the days wear on. The future seems somewhat clouded and unclear as his squad enters this Week 3 contest.
I plan on breaking down how I envision tonight’s Monday Night Football game playing out, but I’d first like to take a hard look at each team individually.
To get a full understanding of what’s going to take place on the gridiron this evening, we need to know what each team’s strengths and weaknesses are, as well as how they’ll be going about trying to put points up on the board.
Being that “Fitzmagic” and the Bucs have taken the NFL world by storm, I’ll start with tonight’s home team.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers
My, my, my.
Who would have thunk it?
I mean, a road game in the Big Easy followed by a game against the Philadelphia Eagles- this team should most definitely have started out 0-2.
Quite frankly, I expected the “Fire Dirk Koetter” chants to be in full bloom by now.
But astonishingly enough and to the surprise of just about everyone associated with the NFL, here the Bucs are, sitting at 2-0.
Even more impressive is what Ryan Fitzpatrick has done. Here’s a 35-year-old guy who was just supposed to be a “3-week stop-gap” while Jameis Winston served his suspension, but instead, he’s out there leading the NFL in passing yards and QB rating through two weeks.
Mike Evans has already hauled in 17 balls, and DeSean Jackson has reincarnated himself into the big-play threat he once was, as evidenced by his performance early on. After catching a pair of long touchdown passes in the opening game, Jackson lit up his former team in Week 2 on the very first play from scrimmage, scoring on a 75-yard bomb.
Perhaps you could harp on Tampa’s inability to get the running game going, but the fact of the matter is, they haven’t needed it up to this point!
While the Bucs offense is undoubtedly flourishing under the guidance of Ryan Fitzpatrick, their defense still has plenty of question marks.
Their secondary has allowed tons of big plays, as they have been unable to put teams away when given big leads. Eventually, this offense is going to come back down to Earth, and the defense will need to step up and make some key stops.
If and when that happens remains to be seen, but I promise you that “Fitzy” won’t keep this Tom Brady impersonation thing up for the whole year. But there’s one big question to ask right now.
Can he keep it up tonight at home against a restless Steelers squad?
To help answer that question, let’s dive in and take a look at the mess going on in the Steel City.
The Pittsburgh Steelers
Another Sunday is in the books, and while some teams found some answers yesterday, the Steelers are still searching.
When is Le’Veon Bell going to come back and rescue this team? Does All-Pro WR Antonio Brown really want out? Does Big Ben have enough left in the tank to right the ship and get this franchise back on track?
Honestly, these are all great questions, and ones that Mike Tomlin certainly doesn’t have the answers to right now or they wouldn’t be in this position. So if the head coach of the football team doesn’t even have a grip on his own locker room, how can an NFL writer like myself add his two cents?
What I CAN tell you is that what I’m seeing, is a football team that is unraveling before my own two eyes.
Quite simply, the Steelers appear to be all over the place. We’ve seen offensive lineman go back and forth at the drop of a hat. First they’re calling Bell out, only to then rescind their comments and pledge their support for their talented RB a day or two later.
When the team stepped onto Heinz Field their last time out, either they were disinterested and unprepared, or they just really lack skill on the defensive side of the ball.
Either way, it’s not a good recipe moving forward if you are trying to win games in the National Football League. Their schedule won’t get much easier as the year progresses, and now teams have seen how much this unit can be exposed.
With all that being said, I have seen this team get on hot streaks before. It’s not entirely impossible that they find a way to win 10 games and end up clinching an AFC North title, but they sure better start figuring things out ASAP.
I can’t imagine Pittsburgh trying to plow James Conner through a Bucs front 7 that includes the likes of Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David, as Tampa’s rushing defense has been stout in the early going.
It’s more likely we see Roethlisberger try and exploit the defensive backfield by utilizing JuJu Smith-Schuster on the outside, combined with a steady dosage of Antonio Brown carving up the middle of the field.
But can they do it on the road in what promises to be a raucous and exciting atmosphere?
Let’s find out.
Tonight’s Matchup
When – Monday, 9/21, 8:15 pm EST
Where – Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Spread – Steelers (-1.5) -114, Buccaneers (+1.5) -106
Total – Over 53.5 -112, Under 53.5 -108
Again, to someone who has been watching the first two weeks in the NFL closely, it might seem odd that the undefeated team playing at home is the underdog against a team who has yet to record a victory.
Not only does it not make much sense at first glance,but it sounds downright blasphemous.
Apparently, bookies such as BetOnline aren’t letting recency bias overtake the overall perceptions of these two franchises heading into the season, as everyone swore that the Steelers were SB contenders. On the same token, the Bucs were supposed to be among the 3 or 4 worst teams in the entire league.
So when you take into account what was supposed to be happening with what is actually taking place, Vegas says that the Steelers should be favored by 1.5 points.
It’s up to you which side you want to take.
To be truthful, it’s hard to tell which Steelers team will show up tonight. Will they finally get focused and come out and play like we all know they are capable of playing? Or will it be the same disgruntled and disconnected team that has taken the field in each of the first two weeks?
Based on what we have seen from these two offenses and defenses, one would EXPECT that we’d be in for a shootout.
Neither of these defenses has looked even remotely competent, and both of these quarterbacks love to get out and sling the ball around the field.So I’d assume the average fan is going to be pounding the over.
Actually I don’t even have to assume.
Based on the popular iOdds app, a whopping 76% of the bets placed on the over/under so far have come in on the over. That explains why it opened at 52.5 and surged to 53.5 by Friday morning. Who knows?It could even approach 55 by kickoff tonight based on where things are going.
Well, if you know me, you know this.If the general public is heavy on one side, I’ll typically be looking to buy stock in the other.
I’ve stated that Ryan Fitzpatrick will start slowing down and eventually look like the decrepit quarterback he has been for the past three years.
Remember, from 2015-2017 while in New York and Tampa, Fitzy completed just 58.4% of his passes while averaging a paltry 214.4 yards per game.
The Steelers defense was utterly embarrassed against the Chiefs in their last game, and I can’t help but think that defensive coordinator Keith Butler is out to exact some revenge.
The fact that pulling the trigger on the over seems so automatic here, and it’s the thing that most will be doing, I’m going to take the under and hope that my premonition about the Buccaneers offense slowing down comes true.
It’ll take essentially a dual-sided shootout for this game to get to 54 points, which is what will need to occur for bettors who take the over to collect on their ticket. I see plenty of scenarios of that not happening, so I’ll be on the side who is rooting for an ugly-looking slugfest!
PICKUnder 53.5-108
Conclusion
Handicapping football games is no easy task, or more people would quit their day jobs.
All you can do is consider all the information and data you have in front of you and weigh out both sides of the argument. The great news for you is that I love dissecting intriguing NFL matchups, and I’ll be releasing a Monday Night pick for the rest of the season.
Hopefully, you gain some insight and enjoy what I provide, but when it comes to actually placing the bet…
That part is still up to you!
BetOnline is one of the premier NFL betting sites out there, and it’s waiting for your action right now. I’ll be back on Wednesday to recap all of Week 3’s action, but until then, enjoy tonight’s festivities!
The post NFL Monday Night Football Betting Preview – Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers appeared first on GamblingSites.com.
MGM, Wynn tamp down Boston casino intrigue
Las Vegas Sun Stories: Gaming
MGM, Wynn tamp down Boston casino intrigue
Executives for MGM and Wynn are tamping down speculation the companies are quietly in talks over Wynn's Boston-area casino. MGM Resorts International CEO Jim Murren said today it would have to be an "extremely unique situation" for officials to ...
