The 2018 NFL Draft officially arrives on Thursday, April 26th, putting to bed speculation surrounding the first pick in the draft.
It’s been a wild ride to get to this point. Sam Darnold was once the locked-in favorite, and even after almost being supplanted by a number of elite prospects, he still may very well be the guy for the Cleveland Browns at #1 overall.
That’s at least what most sports betting sites think, as Darnold has been the clear frontrunner no matter where you look.
Sports bettors can hop on Darnold as the top pick in this year’s draft, or they can take advantage of all of the hype surrounding other players, as well as Cleveland’s presumed inability to make a decision.
Of course, nailing the top pick – whether you’re the Browns or just someone betting on it – is just the beginning.
That pick will set in motion a domino effect that could end up having numerous big names free fall down draft boards. Whether it’s just overrated talent, big trades that shake things up, or a lack of need at a position, there are a handful of players that could slide on day one and possibly all the way out of the first round.
Anything can happen in the draft, and if there are going to be some top prospects sliding, it may impact how you wager on various NFL Draft prop bets.
To help you place your wagers, here’s a look at five big-name prospects that could drop more than expected, and how it could impact the rest of the draft.
It might not be a great idea to bet on Rosen to be the #1 player off the board this year. While the odds are tempting (+2200 at MyBookie.ag), he’s been regarded as the most likely quarterback to slide in this year’s stacked draft class.
That isn’t to say Rosen isn’t good. He comes with an NFL-ready skillset and looks about as smooth in the pocket as any passer in this draft.
The main problem is that Rosen didn’t win at UCLA and also doesn’t have the elite physical traits some of the other top passing prospects possess.
Rosen isn’t the best passer, but he’s a good one. Still, because he’s probably only the fourth-best quarterback going into the 2018 NFL Draft (and some would argue he’s even behind Lamar Jackson), there is a chance he slides.
If there isn’t a crazy quarterback run in the first five picks, a lack of need and interest in other positions could send a guy once seen as a viable #1 option outside of the top 10 or worse.
I name Nelson with some hesitance, as he is absolutely the best offensive lineman in this draft and the best guard by quite a bit. From a sheer talent perspective, he would seem to be a locked and loaded pick within the top five.
NFL scouts looking for a nasty guard who can dominate on the line with athleticism and power will find a stud in Nelson. Fundamentally and technically sound, Nelson feels like a can’t-miss prospect in a draft loaded with questions.
Literally every team could use a player of his talent, but a lot of teams picking early lack a franchise quarterback or will be hard-pressed to pass on studs like Saquon Barkley, Bradley Chubb, and Minkah Fitzpatrick.
I still don’t think a slide outside of the top five is a lock, but it could certainly happen, and if it does, it may not stop there. Based on need and the other talent available, it’s really not that crazy to imagine this beast of a man sliding somewhere in the 8-10 range.
At some point, though, even teams that may like another player at a different position will have to weigh the risk of bypassing such a flat-out stud.
Ridley is at greater risk of sliding further than both Rosen and Nelson. Rosen has at least been in the mix for the first overall pick in the past, while both guys have been regarded as top-five possibilities for quite some time.
Ridley hasn’t risen quite that high, but he’s still been regarded as a potential top-10 pick. Considering he is the consensus #1 wide receiver talent this year, he absolutely could still hear his name called early.
Ridley has great speed and route tree knowledge, but he’s a little smaller than you’d like your top receiver to be. Strength, size, and consistency are the main red flags – not enough to push him too far down in the first round, but enough for some teams to consider other wide receivers ahead of him.
There is a solid group here. D.J. Moore, Courtland Sutton, and Christian Kirk are all viable round-one prospects, so depending on what teams think, it’s possible Ridley could be leap-frogged by any of them.
Of course, while Ridley could slide, the real question is just how far he might fall.
I think he’s still locked into the first round, but when you look at the first 15 picks in this draft, it’s not crazy to suggest nobody picks a wide receiver.
Chicago, San Francisco, Buffalo, and Washington are your best bets in the top 15. They all need wide receiver help in some fashion, but they also need talent elsewhere. If the Cowboys and Ravens don’t take a wide receiver in round one, Ridley’s slide could continue.
Toss in the possibility that Sutton or someone else goes over Ridley, and his fall could go further than people think.
I still think wide receiver is pretty top-heavy, and teams are going to select a handful of them in round one.
However, if you’re trying to gauge who the first receiver off the board will be, looking at D.J. Moore (+160) and Courtland Sutton (+380) as value bets at My Bookie might not be a terrible idea.
There are only three realistic top-level cornerbacks slated to be taken in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft, and there’s no denying Ward is one of them.
Scouts that crave speed (4.32 40-yard dash time!) and top-shelf man coverage are going to be very high on Ward, who comfortably slides in as this draft’s second-best corner prospect.
The problem? Ward may lack the ideal size some scouts will be looking for, which could better suit him on the inside as a slot corner.
That doesn’t destroy Ward’s draft stock necessarily, but if that is how certain teams view him, they may feel less inclined to invest a top-10 pick in him.
This is a fantastic athlete who can stick with anyone at the next level. He’s absolutely a top-10 threat, but in addition to size/strength question marks is the issue of need.
Everyone needs a stud cornerback in the NFL, but the main teams that would pounce on him early could also address other areas. The Bears don’t really need a defensive back this early in the draft, while the 49ers and Raiders could opt for the best linebacker available.
I love the talent here and corner feels thin up top, but if enough teams fall in love with other players and/or don’t view Ward as a #1 cover man, he could conceivably slide out of the top 10.
The last guy to keep tabs on is Marcus Davenport, who is a total freak and is probably going to be a menace at the next level if he falls into the right hands.
“Fall” is the keyword here, unfortunately, as this was at one point a guy working his way into the top 10, but a few issues may cause a free fall.
The biggest drawback is Davenport’s immense size. He is perfectly built for the line in a 4-3 and hypothetically could be a terror on the edge in a 3-4 system as well.
Davenport has the athleticism to play anywhere, but if teams running a 3-4 system don’t believe he can consistently get the job done in coverage on the outside, that could outweigh his athleticism and pass-rushing ability.
In addition to the possible scheme issue, consistency has been a problem. If teams feel Davenport is more of a flash in the pan against weaker competition and/or is system-specific, they may stay away.
The main thing working in Davenport’s favor is the fact that this draft class is not loaded with high-level pass rushers. There are a few, but he’s on a short list, and teams looking to give their pass rush a jolt should be giving him a long, hard look.
I still think Davenport is a likely lock for round one, but he’s not the top-15 slam dunk I thought he was months ago.
Overall, I still think all five of these guys stay inside round one. While this year’s draft process has felt fairly unpredictable, I do think most of the guys projected inside the first round are destined to be there.
The players at real risk are the ones already projected in the 20-32 pick range, and they wouldn’t necessarily qualify as “big falls.”
Of everyone, the biggest guy to keep an eye on is Rosen. His situation could end up being quite similar to Aaron Rodgers’. He’s an elite passing talent, but a loaded position and the combination of talent and need elsewhere could end up hurting him.
It will be interesting to see how the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft unfolds, but the biggest takeaway is how this could impact NFL Draft betting. If you feel any guys are slipping enough to go outside of round one, that may affect how you wager on positional and school bets.
This breakdown also gives you an idea of how to approach player-specific bets that deal with the Over/Under on their draft range, while these guys sliding (or not sliding) could also understandably play into Over/Under wagers for other players.
There is a lot to consider this year, even if all you’re doing is just watching the draft. If you plan on betting on it, make sure you do your research and feel comfortable with your bets before hitting “submit.”
Whatever you do, enjoy the draft, and good luck with your wagers!
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